TFR of 3.1 = ignorance, inequality & poverty

Israel's TFR (Total Fertility Rate – the number of children whom the average woman bears in her lifetime) is 3.1, while OECD’s 2nd highest TFR=2.2, and the average TFR=1.7. Here is the flowchart of what happens as the result of our excessive birthrate:

englishflowchart

The sources for the above steps of descent to the 3rd world

(by numbers, except the self-evident 8, 12 & 13). All data here are based on reliable sources – see Hebrew report at https://tinyurl.com/ycjn59up for URLs of sources & pages. Here only English sources are given, Hebrew ones – omitted.

1) The young (0-15 y/o) are 28.2% or our population (the highest in OECD), the average of OECD is 18.45%.

2) Public funds per 0-2 y/o are as 33.6 % of those in OECD; per 3-5 y/o – 53.8%; primary & secondary education funding per student is below the OECD average.

3)18.5% failed PISA in Israel vs 11.6% in OECD. For 20 years we place 40th in the world in PISA. In fact, the real picture is gloomier, because 23% of our pupils are kharedim [ultra-orthodox Jews] who don’t learn the relevant subjects and are not tested. All other countries are allowed not to test up to 5%.

Endangering democracy: 39% of pupils (twice the lowest in G7) are below the minimum grade in planning and in setting secondary goals:

problemssolving

"… there exists a strong relationship between the share of pupils unable to plan ahead and the share of pupils lacking necessary core educational skills. This mix as adults can become combustible. Frustration mounts for those with an increasing inability to secure jobs in rapidly
changing economies. An accompanying inability to distinguish between the actual source of the
problem and perceived sources can lead to democratic choices that are not conducive to dealing with the original problem – while potentially exacerbating the situation by creating
new, and possibly greater problems." [page 44]

4)We are the 3rd  lowest spenders (in % of GDP) on adult training; the gap between us and the OECD average grew from 120% in 2000 to 280% in 2013:

vocationaltraining

5) Our adults (16-64 y/o) place 29 out of OECD's 34 in literacy, numeracy, and digital skills. Our high-tech, bio-tech, and academia workers are a high-skilled minority, while the majority are low-skilled, particularly among Arabs & kharedim:

AdultsSkills.png

6) Low work skills result in low average productivity: $36 per hour vs $46.7 in the OECD.

7) Our 16-64 y/o (working age) are 61.55% in the population – the lowest in the OECD (actually, it is lower, because 48% of 18-21 y/o perform a compulsory military duty for a nominal pay). So, in Israel there are 2.18 workers per child (see 1) above) vs 3.6 workers per child in the OECD.

9) Among the 11 & 14 y/o, wide grades gaps exist between children from rich and poor families and these gaps are not narrowing.

10) In PISA tests (15-16 y/o) we are among the worst. The gap between rich and poor is the widest in the OECD and is not narrowing. That’s not because our strongest 5% of pupils are very good (they are in the lowest one-third of their group), but because the weakest 5% are the worst in their group.

11) In the last 40 years the rate of university professors in the population declined by 60%. In 1999-2014 their rate per student declined by 32%. Many Israeli PhD-s in mathematics, computers, materials, and aeronautics (from 24.1% to 17% respectively), and ~15% of MSc-s went abroad for the lack of money to employ them in Israel. Their numbers steadily rise from 26,012 in 2012 to 30,007 in 2015:

GraduatesEmigrate.png

               THE SOURCE OF DANGER AND THE WAY TO OVERCOME IT
High fertility, which harms our education and economy, is caused by public subsidy to unlimited number of progeny. And because in Israel poor parents bear more children than rich parents do, rises the the % in of poor families which lack money to compensate their children (by private lessons, good housing & schools) for what the public money cannot give them. These children become low-scoring students who grow to be poor adults with many children, whose ever worse education fails them in the modern economy. Ever diminishing elites are taxed ever higher, so more of them emigrate – thus further weakening the economy. And in our rough neighborhood, a strong army needs a strong economy.

How can we lower an inequality, improve an education and standard of living? We must pass a LAW: Only 1 child per 1 parent (children born before this law not affected) gets the public money for health, education, child subsidy, etc. Parent who bears additional children must pay for their medical services (and may pay, if wishes, for their schooling outside home) till they are 18. Pregnancy prevention and termination will be free for all.

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