(High Israeli TFR=3.1 (OECD average=1.7
sends our economy into a downward spiral
The below flowchart is valid for both state-run and voucher-based k-12
(kindergartens and schools), and for state-subsidized colleges and universities.
Demographic trends specific to Israel
aggravate and accelerate the above process
In other OECD countries, parents' income level hardly effects their fertility. In Israel, poor parents usually bear many more children (6~7) than affluent ones do (2~3), and this trend usually continues in next generations. As the result, rises the ratio of poor children who, statistically, are worse learners than children of affluent parents are.
In Israel, relatively to other OCED nations, there are more families with more than average siblings. Statistically, the more siblings – the lower their cognitive and learning levels.
PROGNOSES (if Israel maintains its present fertility rates)
Today, average Israeli child (0-15 y/o) is provided by ~2 adults of working age (16-64), while average OECD child has 3.6 providers. We'll have ever less providers per child, i.e. ever less money for educating the young, because if each population sector keeps its present TFR, in 2035 the average TFR will be 3.5, in 2055 – 4.0.
Teachers' quality will not improve: the more of them are needed (for ever growing children/adults ratio), the less money is available for each one's studies and future wages, and better qualified candidates avoid joining the profession.
PISA marks will dwindle as the ratio of poor children with many siblings is rising. Being both poor and having more siblings predict, statistically, that these children will be worse learners. Also, the achievement gaps between rich and poor children (today the highest in OECD!) will widen further.
Skills of average Israeli worker will continue to decline, because among those who leave Israel, the ratio of skilled and educated people is higher than their ratio in general population.